Simplicity和predictability令人堕陷阱

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“网上廉价情骗”案,18名女士报案,指网上认识一名男子,见面后他讹称生日要求收礼物,各女士怕尴尬送上数百至数千元贺礼,共值逾9万元,警方在马鞍山拘捕怀疑涉案健身教练。

5名市民报案,指应征网上招聘广告时被骗款项逾12万元。另外,年轻内地女子堕电话骗案陷阱,被一名来电的陌生男子骗去8万多元。

这些都是最近接连发生的骗案其中几宗,很多这类案件都是利用手提电话或互联网行骗,看来是资讯科技发达的黑暗面。受骗亦与年龄、背景或教育程度无关。
“道高一尺、魔高一丈”这句话用来形容骗案就最合适,最聪明的人也有人性的弱点,读书多明显不是防骗的保证。

长骗长有

Fraud是名词,解wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain,行骗的罪行、诈骗;例如︰The man was sent to prison for fraud.(那男子因行骗罪被判坐监。)

Fraud也解a person or thing intended to deceive others, typically by unjustifiably(没道理地、没有根据地)claiming or being credited with accomplishments or qualities,即骗子,或骗人的东西。

每个世代都有骗子,Dan Davies在Lying for Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of Our World中就列出不少个案,也试图分析受害人受骗的原因。

Barbara Erni, an 18th-century Liechtenstein woman famed(有名的)for her red-blonde hair, enjoyed staying in the best hotels the German Alps had to offer. Each visit was the same: she would consume(享用)the finest food and drink and run up a huge bill, but the hotel would be reassured by the fact that Erni had with her a trunk full of so many valuables(贵重物品)she insisted it be stored under the safest conditions.

Liechtenstein(列支敦斯登公国),是位于瑞士与奥地利之间的小国,面积只有160方公里,是欧洲第4小、世界第六小的国家。没有自己的货币,但风光明媚,国民生活丰裕。

不过这位Liechtenstein国民Barbara Erni,就到处去住高级酒店,住最好的房间,每餐点最名贵的菜,一段时间后,就会逃之夭夭,自然就是没有付帐。

不败幌子

空心老倌,“呃饮呃食”的桥段,电影常见题材,这样的桥段大家不知见过多少次,但为何由十八世纪到今时今日,仍然行得通,骗徒都可以继续得逞?就Barbara Erni的手法,Dan Davies这样分析:

Very simple, you might think-and very predictable. But as this history of fraud shows, simplicity and predictability don’t stop scams(骗局)from succeeding. In fact, they’re often a crucial part of the success.

Predictable解可预计的、意料之中的,predictability则解可预测。 Simplicity解简单。 Predictability和simplicity,往往就是骗局成功的主要因素。当然,大家相信像银行等大机构too big to fail,大得不可能倒闭,也是骗得到千千万万人的幌子,雷曼兄第破产、“毒债”和金融海啸,就属这一种。

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