向拜登传递“强硬讯息” 朝鲜数周内或核试验

加拿大都市网

This Thursday, July 25, 2019, photo provided on Friday, July 26, 2019, by the North Korean government shows a test of a missile launch in North Korea. A day after two North Korean missile launches rattled Asia, the nation announced Friday that its leader Kim Jong Un supervised a test of a new-type tactical guided weapon that was meant to be a "solemn warning" about South Korean weapons introduction and its rival's plans to hold military exercises with the United States. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: "KCNA" which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

【加拿大都市网】美国前官员忧心朝鲜近期可能试射核武或长程导弹。图为2019年,朝鲜发射导弹。美联社资料图片

华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)专家李维亚(Evans Revere,国务院前助理国务卿)认为,朝鲜未来几周可能试射核武或长程导弹,向总统当选人拜登传递“强硬讯息”,强迫美国关注朝鲜。

拜登上台后,据信面对朝鲜与其领导人金正恩时,将采取与特朗普时代截然不同的应对方式,遵循传统外交手段,透过与大陆、盟友合作,施压朝鲜。日前他已与韩国总统文在寅通电话,达成共识,合作解决朝鲜核武问题。影响所及,美朝峰会恐成绝响。

经济学人资讯社(EIU)亚洲问题专家阿登瓦拉(Waqas Adenwala)也同意此观点,称“朝鲜时常透过各种导弹试射保持‘相关性’,确保(朝鲜)议题维持关键、优先的外交政策。”拜登不学特朗普与金正恩搞哥俩好的关系。2019年朝鲜批拜登污辱朝鲜尊严,是一只“必须被棍棒打死”的“疯狗”。拜登竞选期间也以纳粹比拟金正恩,称对方是一名“恶棍”。

此外,也有一些专家担心,拜登对于朝鲜的态度将如欧巴马时代“过度消极”,这只会导致朝鲜继续扩增核武实力。英国智库皇家联合研究所(RUSI)研究员瓦里尔(Cristina Varriale)指出,消极态度“没有真正发挥作用,特朗普2016年上任时,朝鲜在核武方面已经达到一定程度的先进水准”。

特朗普与金正恩曾经互呛,但陆续在新加坡与河内举办了历史性峰会,建立起“哥俩情”(bromance)。只不过两国至今仍未达成无核化协议。

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