Simplicity和predictability令人墮陷阱

加拿大都市网

「網上廉價情騙」案,18名女士報案,指網上認識一名男子,見面後他訛稱生日要求收禮物,各女士怕尷尬送上數百至數千元賀禮,共值逾9萬元,警方在馬鞍山拘捕懷疑涉案健身教練。

5名市民報案,指應徵網上招聘廣告時被騙款項逾12萬元。另外,年輕內地女子墮電話騙案陷阱,被一名來電的陌生男子騙去8萬多元。

這些都是最近接連發生的騙案其中幾宗,很多這類案件都是利用手提電話或互聯網行騙,看來是資訊科技發達的黑暗面。受騙亦與年齡、背景或教育程度無關。
「道高一尺、魔高一丈」這句話用來形容騙案就最合適,最聰明的人也有人性的弱點,讀書多明顯不是防騙的保證。

長騙長有

Fraud是名詞,解wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain,行騙的罪行、詐騙;例如︰The man was sent to prison for fraud.(那男子因行騙罪被判坐監。)

Fraud也解a person or thing intended to deceive others, typically by unjustifiably(沒道理地、沒有根據地)claiming or being credited with accomplishments or qualities,即騙子,或騙人的東西。

每個世代都有騙子,Dan Davies在Lying for Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of Our World中就列出不少個案,也試圖分析受害人受騙的原因。

Barbara Erni, an 18th-century Liechtenstein woman famed(有名的)for her red-blonde hair, enjoyed staying in the best hotels the German Alps had to offer. Each visit was the same: she would consume(享用)the finest food and drink and run up a huge bill, but the hotel would be reassured by the fact that Erni had with her a trunk full of so many valuables(貴重物品)she insisted it be stored under the safest conditions.

Liechtenstein(列支敦士登公國),是位於瑞士與奧地利之間的小國,面積只有160方公里,是歐洲第4小、世界第六小的國家。沒有自己的貨幣,但風光明媚,國民生活豐裕。

不過這位Liechtenstein國民Barbara Erni,就到處去住高級酒店,住最好的房間,每餐點最名貴的菜,一段時間後,就會逃之夭夭,自然就是沒有付帳。

不敗幌子

空心老倌,「呃飲呃食」的橋段,電影常見題材,這樣的橋段大家不知見過多少次,但為何由十八世紀到今時今日,仍然行得通,騙徒都可以繼續得逞?就Barbara Erni的手法,Dan Davies這樣分析:

Very simple, you might think-and very predictable. But as this history of fraud shows, simplicity and predictability don’t stop scams(騙局)from succeeding. In fact, they’re often a crucial part of the success.

Predictable解可預計的、意料之中的,predictability則解可預測。 Simplicity解簡單。 Predictability和simplicity,往往就是騙局成功的主要因素。當然,大家相信像銀行等大機構too big to fail,大得不可能倒閉,也是騙得到千千萬萬人的幌子,雷曼兄第破產、「毒債」和金融海嘯,就屬這一種。